Overall Q1 2016 Corporate Profits Relative To GDP

In the last post (“After-Tax Corporate Profits 1st Quarter 2016“) I displayed, for reference purposes, a long-term chart depicting Corporate Profits After Tax.

There are many ways to view this measure, both on an absolute as well as relative basis.

One relative measure is viewing Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP.  I feel that this metric is important for a variety of reasons.  As well, the measure is important to a variety of parties, including investors, businesses, and government policy makers.

As one can see from the long-term chart below (updated through the first quarter), (After Tax) Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP is at levels that can be seen as historically (very) high.  While there are many reasons as to why this is so, from a going-forward standpoint I think it is important to recognize both that such a notable condition exists, as well as contemplate and/or plan for such factors and conditions that would come about if (and in my opinion “when”) a more historically “normal” ratio of Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP occurs.  This topic can be very complex in nature, and depends upon myriad factors.  In my opinion it deserves far greater recognition.

(click on chart to enlarge image)

corporate profits as a percentage of GDP

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed May 27, 2016

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ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC (RevSD.com).  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

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After-Tax Corporate Profits Chart 1st Quarter 2016

Friday’s GDP release (Q1, 2nd Estimate)(pdf) was accompanied by the BLS Corporate Profits report for the 1st Quarter.

Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits.  For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) showing the Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj) (last updated May 27, 2016, with a value of $1671.4 Billion):

Corporate Profits After Tax

Here is the Corporate Profits After Tax measure shown on a Percentage Change from a Year Ago perspective:

corporate profits after tax percent change from year ago

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Corporate Profits After Tax [CP]; U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis; accessed May 27, 2016; https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CP

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ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC (RevSD.com).  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

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Businesses’ Expectations Regarding Units Costs And Factors Impacting Pricing

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes a monthly report titled “Business Inflation Expectations” (BIE) that contains statistics from a survey of regional businesses’ views on various factors that impact profitability.  These factors include unit costs, unit cost expectations, sales levels, profit margins, and other factors.

As described on the site:

Approximately 300 panelists receive the survey each month. Panelists represent businesses of various sizes headquartered within the Sixth District, which encompasses Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and sections of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Panelists range from executives of large corporations to owner-operators of small businesses. The industry composition of the panel roughly reflects the makeup of the national economy. Nevertheless, survey responses are weighted by industry shares of national gross domestic product.

An excerpt from the May 2016 BIE Survey dated May 18, 2016 (involving 207 firms responding):

Respondents indicated that, on average, they expect unit costs to rise 1.9 percent over the next 12 months. Inflation uncertainty was virtually unchanged at 2.4 percent. Firms also report that, compared to this time last year, their unit costs are up 1.5 percent. Respondents’ sales levels, compared to what they consider normal conditions, declined overall to a diffusion index value of -11 compared to -8 in April. Profit margins also declined, with a diffusion index value of -24 compared to -16 in April.

This month’s “quarterly question” concerned factors influencing price change.  An excerpt:

Seventy percent of respondents indicated that labor costs will put moderate or strong upward pressure on their prices over the next 12 months. Respondents’ expectations regarding the influence of nonlabor costs on prices increased from the last measure, with 59 percent of respondents indicating upward price pressure. Thirty-eight percent of respondents expect sales levels to put moderate or strong upward pressure on prices in the year ahead. The majority of firms expect productivity and margin adjustments to have little or no influence over prices in the next 12 months.

This month’s “special question” had to do with the firms’ assessments of hiring difficulty and its impact on wage and benefit offerings.

The report also includes a variety of charts and tables depicting respondents’ answers.

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

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ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

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S&P500 Earnings Trends – May 2016

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of May 13, 2016:

from page 22:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

2016 and 2017 projected S&P500 EPS

from page 23:

S&P500 EPS 2006-2017

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RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

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ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC (RevSD.com).  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

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S&P500 EPS Forecasts – 2016 – 2018

As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.

The following estimates are from Exhibit 20 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of May 18, 2016, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share and the Year 2015 value is $117.46:

Year 2016 estimate:

$118.46/share

Year 2017 estimate:

$135.49/share

Year 2018 estimate:

$148.81/share

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RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

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ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC (RevSD.com).  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

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