Category: Profitability

Each month the Philadelphia Fed releases the Business Outlook Survey, which contains a variety of information concerning business conditions.

As seen on the site:

The Business Outlook Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants: employment, working hours, new and unfilled orders, shipments, inventories, delivery times, prices paid, and prices received. The survey has been conducted each month since May 1968.

One component of this survey are diffusion indices for both “Prices Paid” and “Prices Received.” (for those unaware, this survey provides the following definition:  “Diffusion indexes represent the percentage indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease.”)

Doug Short provides a monthly blog post concerning the Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey.  For reference purposes, here is a chart he has created that shows, from a long-term perspective, the “Prices Paid” and “Prices Received” diffusion indices (shown by the dots) and their 12-month moving averages (shown by the solid lines) from the January 2014 report :

(click on chart to enlarge image)

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The Atlanta Federal Reserve publishes a monthly report titled “Business Inflation Expectations” (BIE) that contains statistics from a survey of regional businesses’ views on various factors that impact profitability.  These factors include unit costs, unit cost expectations, sales levels, profit margins, and other factors.

As described on the site:

Approximately 300 panelists receive the survey each month. Panelists represent businesses of various sizes headquartered within the Sixth District, which encompasses Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and sections of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Panelists range from executives of large corporations to owner-operators of small businesses. The industry composition of the panel roughly reflects the makeup of the national economy. Nevertheless, survey responses are weighted by industry shares of national gross domestic product.

An excerpt from the January 2014 BIE Survey (pdf) dated January 15, 2014 (involving 208 firms responding) :

Respondents indicated that, on average, they expect unit costs to rise 1.9 percent over the next 12 months.  Inflation uncertainty was unchanged at 2.3 percent in January. Firms also report that, compared to this time last year, their unit costs are up 1.7 percent. Respondents reported a slight decline in sales levels in January, with approximately 49 percent indicating their current sales levels are at or above normal compared to 54 percent in December. Profit margins also declined somewhat, with roughly 45 percent of respondents indicating their profit margins are at or above normal, compared to 50 percent in December.

This month’s “quarterly question” concerned annual inflation expectations over the next five to ten years.   As seen in the report:

Over the long term, that is, per year over the next five to 10 years, respondents expect unit costs to increase 2.8 percent, on average, virtually unchanged from the October reading of 2.7 percent.  Respondents’ uncertainty (variance) regarding this expectation was unchanged at 2.3 percent.

Furthermore, the “special question” asked respondents about their expectations for year-ahead unit sales growth.  The respondents’ average year-ahead unit sales growth expectation was 4.3%.

The report also includes a variety of charts depicting respondents’ answers.

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The Atlanta Federal Reserve publishes a monthly report titled “Business Inflation Expectations” (BIE) that contains statistics from a survey of regional businesses’ views on various factors that impact profitability.  These factors include unit costs, unit cost expectations, sales levels, profit margins, and other factors.

As described on the site:

Approximately 300 panelists receive the survey each month. Panelists represent businesses of various sizes headquartered within the Sixth District, which encompasses Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and sections of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Panelists range from executives of large corporations to owner-operators of small businesses. The industry composition of the panel roughly reflects the makeup of the national economy. Nevertheless, survey responses are weighted by industry shares of national gross domestic product.

An excerpt from the December 2013 BIE Survey (pdf) dated December 20, 2013 (involving 203 firms responding) :

Respondents indicated that, on average, they expect unit costs to rise 1.9 percent over the next 12 months. Inflation uncertainty was unchanged at 2.3 percent in December. Firms also report that, compared to this time last year, their unit costs are up 1.8 percent. Respondents reported improved sales levels in December, with roughly 54 percent indicating their current sales levels are at or above normal compared to just 44 percent in November. Profit margins also improved somewhat, with 50 percent of respondents indicating their profit margins are at or above normal, compared to just 41 percent in November.

This month’s “quarterly question” concerned the percentage above / below unit sales levels were compared to normal levels.

Also, the “special question” and its responses are depicted below:

The report also includes a variety of charts and tables depicting respondents’ answers to the various questions.

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Each month the Philadelphia Fed releases the Business Outlook Survey, which contains a variety of information concerning business conditions.

As seen on the site:

The Business Outlook Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District. Participants indicate the direction of change in overall business activity and in the various measures of activity at their plants: employment, working hours, new and unfilled orders, shipments, inventories, delivery times, prices paid, and prices received. The survey has been conducted each month since May 1968.

One component of this survey are diffusion indices for both “Prices Paid” and “Prices Received.” (for those unaware, this survey provides the following definition:  ”Diffusion indexes represent the percentage indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease.”)

Doug Short provides a monthly blog post concerning the Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey.  For reference purposes, here is a chart he has created that shows, from a long-term perspective, the “Prices Paid” and “Prices Received” diffusion indices (shown by the dots) and their 12-month moving averages (shown by the solid lines) from the November 2013 report :

(click on chart to enlarge image)

_____

The Atlanta Federal Reserve publishes a monthly report titled “Business Inflation Expectations” (BIE) that contains statistics from a survey of regional businesses’ views on various factors that impact profitability.  These factors include unit costs, unit cost expectations, sales levels, profit margins, and other factors.

As described on the site:

Approximately 300 panelists receive the survey each month. Panelists represent businesses of various sizes headquartered within the Sixth District, which encompasses Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and sections of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Panelists range from executives of large corporations to owner-operators of small businesses. The industry composition of the panel roughly reflects the makeup of the national economy. Nevertheless, survey responses are weighted by industry shares of national gross domestic product.

An excerpt from the November 2013 BIE Survey (pdf) dated November 14, 2013 (involving 207 firms responding) :

Respondents indicated that, on average, they expect unit costs to rise 1.9 percent over the next 12 months. Inflation uncertainty was virtually unchanged at 2.3 percent in November. Firms also report that, compared to this time last year, their unit costs are up 1.6 percent. Sales levels were relatively unchanged in November, with roughly 44 percent of respondents saying their current sales levels are at or above normal compared to 46 percent in October. Profit margins also were unchanged, with only 41 percent of respondents indicating their profit margins are at or above normal.

This month’s “quarterly question” concerned factors influencing price change.   As seen in the report:

Sixty-five percent of respondents expect labor costs to put moderate or strong upward pressure on their prices over the next 12 months, a relatively large share of responses that has trended slightly upward. Respondents’ expectations regarding the upward influence of non-labor costs on prices over the next 12 months have lessened, and at 66 percent they are now roughly equal to expectations for the upward influence of labor costs. Thirty-nine percent of respondents expect sales levels to put moderate or strong upward pressure on prices in the year ahead, a measure that has increased since May.

Furthermore, the “special question” asked respondents about their expectations for year-ahead unit sales growth.

The report also includes a variety of charts depicting respondents’ answers.

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