Category: S&P500 Earnings Estimates

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of September 19, 2013:

Year 2013 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $108.08/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $98.28/share

Year 2014 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $122.32/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $113.75/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $108.29/share

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S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of August 16, 2013:

from page 11:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

CY Bottom-Up EPS vs. Top-Down Mean EPS (Trailing 26-Weeks) 

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from page 12:

Calendar Year Bottom-Up EPS Actuals & Estimates

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As many are aware, Thomson Reuters publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.

The following estimates are from Exhibit 12 of “The Director’s Report” of August 20, 2013, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts:

Year 2013 estimate:

$110.70/share

Year 2014 estimate:

$123.01/share

Year 2015 estimate:

$135.62/share

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As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of August 15, 2013:

Year 2013 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $108.41/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $100.91/share

Year 2014 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $122.28/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of $114.53/share

-From a “top down” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $111.53/share

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In today’s (August 14,2013) Wall Street Journal, an article titled “Shrinking Profits May Keep Stocks’ Records Safe” discusses quarter-to-date S&P500 earnings.

Notable excerpts include:

With 90% of companies in the S&P 500 having reported second-quarter results, firms are on track to post 2.2% earnings growth from the year-ago quarter. That is the second-lowest growth rate since the depths of the financial crisis, and down from previous periods. Earnings among the large U.S. companies tracked by the index rose 3.4% in the first quarter and 5.6% in the fourth quarter of 2012.

And the gains from earlier this year have been driven largely by corporate cost cutting and a bounceback by financial companies. Excluding financials, profits are on track to be down 2.9% in the second quarter from last year, according to FactSet.

also:

Meanwhile, stock analysts have been cutting profit forecasts for the second half of the year. Wall Street now expects 4% earnings growth for the third quarter, down from 6.6% forecast at the end of June.

There is also a notable graphic in the article that shows the sales and earnings growth for the S&P500 since 2008, with a narrative stating “Growth at S&P 500 companies has trailed off, leading analysts to trim sales and profit expectations.”

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