Inflation Expectations Of Businesses Over Two Time Frames

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes a monthly report titled “Business Inflation Expectations” (BIE) that contains statistics from a survey of regional businesses’ views on various factors that impact profitability.  These factors include unit costs, unit cost expectations, sales levels, profit margins, and other factors.

As described on the site:

Approximately 300 panelists receive the survey each month. Panelists represent businesses of various sizes headquartered within the Sixth District, which encompasses Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and sections of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Panelists range from executives of large corporations to owner-operators of small businesses. The industry composition of the panel roughly reflects the makeup of the national economy. Nevertheless, survey responses are weighted by industry shares of national gross domestic product.

An excerpt from the April 2018 BIE Survey dated April 11, 2018 (involving 178 firms responding):

• Inflation expectations: Firms’ inflation expectations increased to 2.3 percent over the year ahead, the highest measure since the survey began in October 2011.

also:

• Quarterly question: Long-term inflation expectations (per year, over the next five to 10 years) remained roughly unchanged at 2.9 percent.

The “special question” for the survey asked about contributions to profit margins and intended strategies to maintain or improve profit margins.

The report also includes other questions and a variety of charts and tables depicting respondents’ answers.

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