Firms’ Responses Regarding Inflation Expectations And Current Sales

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes a monthly report titled “Business Inflation Expectations” (BIE) that contains statistics from a survey of regional businesses’ views on various factors that impact profitability.  These factors include unit costs, unit cost expectations, sales levels, profit margins, and other factors.

As described on the site:

Approximately 300 panelists receive the survey each month. Panelists represent businesses of various sizes headquartered within the Sixth District, which encompasses Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and sections of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Panelists range from executives of large corporations to owner-operators of small businesses. The industry composition of the panel roughly reflects the makeup of the national economy. Nevertheless, survey responses are weighted by industry shares of national gross domestic product.

An excerpt from the March 2020 BIE Survey dated March 11, 2020 (involving 228 firms responding):

  • Inflation expectations: Firms’ year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 1.9 percent, on average.
  • Current economic environment: Sales levels “compared to normal” declined significantly over the month. Profit margins also declined but only slightly. Year-over-year unit cost growth went virtually unchanged at 1.6 percent, on average.
  • Quarterly question: Firms’ long-term inflation expectations (per year, over the next five to ten years) were 2.6 percent, unchanged from the last reading in December 2019.
  • Special question: Firms indicated whether the recent spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) had affected various areas of their business. A breakdown of the results can be found in the special question section below.

The report also includes other questions and a variety of charts and tables depicting respondents’ answers.

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

S&P500 Earnings Trends – February 2020

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of February 14, 2020:

from page 32:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS estimates 2020 & 2021

from page 33:

S&P500 Annual EPS 2010-2021

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

Firms’ Inflation Expectations And Annual Employee Merit Increases

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes a monthly report titled “Business Inflation Expectations” (BIE) that contains statistics from a survey of regional businesses’ views on various factors that impact profitability.  These factors include unit costs, unit cost expectations, sales levels, profit margins, and other factors.

As described on the site:

Approximately 300 panelists receive the survey each month. Panelists represent businesses of various sizes headquartered within the Sixth District, which encompasses Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and sections of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Panelists range from executives of large corporations to owner-operators of small businesses. The industry composition of the panel roughly reflects the makeup of the national economy. Nevertheless, survey responses are weighted by industry shares of national gross domestic product.

An excerpt from the February 2020 BIE Survey dated February 12, 2020 (involving 218 firms responding):

  • Inflation expectations: Firms’ year-ahead inflation expectations declined to 1.7 percent, on average.

The “Special question” concerned whether firms provide annual merit increases to their full-time employees and, if so, various aspects of these increases.

The report also includes other questions and a variety of charts and tables depicting respondents’ answers.

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

Chart Of Quarterly S&P500 Net Profit Margins 2015 Through 2019

For reference purposes, below is a chart depicting quarterly S&P500 net profit margins for Q4 2015 – 2019.  As seen in the chart, the net profit margin for Q4 2019 is projected.  The chart is from the FactSet Earning Insight report of January 17, 2020 p. 2.

An excerpt regarding the trend of net profit margins depicted:

If 10.7% is the actual net profit margin for the quarter, it will mark the first time the index has reported four straight quarters of year-over-year declines in net profit margin since Q4 2008 through Q3 2009.

quarterly S&P500 net profit margins

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

S&P500 Earnings Trends – January 2020

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of January 17, 2020:

from page 24:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS forecasts

from page 25:

S&P500 EPS 2010-2021

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.