“Bottom Up” S&P500 EPS Projections Years 2020, 2021 & 2022

As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.

The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of April 21, 2020, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share; the Year 2015 value is $117.46/share; the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share; the Year 2017 value is $132.00/share; the Year 2018 value is $161.93/share; and the Year 2019 value is $162.93/share:

Year 2020 estimate:

$140.05/share

Year 2021 estimate:

$173.37/share

Year 2022 estimate:

$193.95/share

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

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ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

S&P500 EPS Forecasts From Standard & Poor’s April 16, 2020

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of April 16, 2020:

Year 2020 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $138.65/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $125.55/share

Year 2021 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $171.71/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $157.84/share

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

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ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

Firms’ Responses On How Sales Are Impacted By Coronavirus

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes a monthly report titled “Business Inflation Expectations” (BIE) that contains statistics from a survey of regional businesses’ views on various factors that impact profitability.  These factors include unit costs, unit cost expectations, sales levels, profit margins, and other factors.

As described on the site:

Approximately 300 panelists receive the survey each month. Panelists represent businesses of various sizes headquartered within the Sixth District, which encompasses Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and sections of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Panelists range from executives of large corporations to owner-operators of small businesses. The industry composition of the panel roughly reflects the makeup of the national economy. Nevertheless, survey responses are weighted by industry shares of national gross domestic product.

An excerpt from the April 2020 BIE Survey dated April 15, 2020 (involving 242 firms responding):

  • Inflation expectations: Firms’ year-ahead inflation expectations declined to 1.4 percent, on average.
  • Current economic environment: Sales levels “compared to normal” declined dramatically over the month. Profit margins experienced a similar decline. Year-over-year unit cost growth fell to 1.2 percent, on average.
  • Quarterly question: Firms’ sales gap (percentage below “normal” sales levels) widened substantially to 31.6 percent below normal from 2.5 percent below normal in January, the last measure.
  • Special question: Firms indicated the extent to which the recent spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) had affected their sales activity and operations. In addition, they provided an estimate of when they expect to return to normal operations and how long they can continue to operate without accessing additional sources of funding. They also indicated how they anticipate the price of the product/product line or service responsible for the largest share of their revenue is likely to change over the next six months. A breakdown of the results can be found in the special question section below.

The report also includes other questions and a variety of charts and tables depicting respondents’ answers.

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

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ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

Overall Q4 2019 Corporate Profits Relative To GDP

In the last post (“After-Tax Corporate Profits 4th Quarter 2019“) I displayed, for reference purposes, a long-term chart depicting Corporate Profits After Tax.

There are many ways to view this measure, both on an absolute as well as relative basis.

One relative measure is viewing Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP.  I feel that this metric is important for a variety of reasons.  As well, the measure is important to a variety of parties, including investors, businesses, and government policy makers.

As one can see from the long-term chart below (updated through the fourth quarter), (After Tax) Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP is at levels that can be seen as historically (very) high.  While there are many reasons as to why this is so, from a going-forward standpoint I think it is important to recognize both that such a notable condition exists, as well as contemplate and/or plan for such factors and conditions that would come about if (and in my opinion “when”) a more historically “normal” ratio of Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP occurs.  This topic can be very complex in nature, and depends upon myriad factors.  In my opinion it deserves far greater recognition.

(click on chart to enlarge image)

Corporate Profits As A Percentage Of GDP

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RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

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ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC (RevSD.com).  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

After-Tax Corporate Profits Chart 4th Quarter 2019

Today’s (March 26, 2020) GDP release (Q4 2019, third estimate) was accompanied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Corporate Profits report (preliminary estimate) for the 4th Quarter.

Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits.  For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) showing the Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj) (last updated March 26, 2020, with a value of $1903.753 Billion SAAR):

Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj)

Here is the Corporate Profits After Tax measure shown on a Percentage Change from a Year Ago perspective:

Corporate Profits After Tax Percent Change From Year Ago

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Corporate Profits After Tax [CP]; U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis; accessed March 26, 2020; https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CP

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RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

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ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC (RevSD.com).  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.