Businesses’ Inflation Expectations And Expected Wage Growth

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes a monthly report titled “Business Inflation Expectations” (BIE) that contains statistics from a survey of regional businesses’ views on various factors that impact profitability.  These factors include unit costs, unit cost expectations, sales levels, pricing, profit margins, and other factors.

As described on the site:

“Approximately 300 panelists receive the survey each month. Panelists represent businesses of various sizes headquartered within the Sixth District, which encompasses Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and sections of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Panelists range from executives of large corporations to owner-operators of small businesses. The industry composition of the panel roughly reflects the makeup of the national economy. Nevertheless, survey responses are weighted by industry shares of national gross domestic product.”

An excerpt from the January 2022 BIE Survey dated January 12, 2022 (involving 179 firms responding):

  • Inflation expectations: Firms’ year-ahead inflation expectations remain unchanged at 3.4 percent, on average.
  • Current economic environment: Sales levels and profit margins “compared to normal” remain relatively unchanged. Year-over-year unit cost growth increased slightly to 3.7 percent, on average.
  • Quarterly question: Firms’ sales gap (percentage below “normal” unit sales levels) increased significantly to 1 percent above normal and remain at historically high levels.
  • Special question: Firms were asked to decompose their share of labor force by skill level. They were then asked to estimate the average hourly wage by skill level. Finally, they provided the expected wage growth over the next 12 months for each skill level. A breakdown of the results can be found in the special question section below.

The report also includes other questions and a variety of charts and tables depicting respondents’ answers.

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

S&P500 Earnings Trends – December 2021

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of December 17, 2021:

from page 26:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 EPS 2021 & 2022

from page 27:

S&P500 EPS 2011 - 2022

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

Annual S&P500 EPS For 2014-2023

As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  

The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of December 17, 2021, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share; the Year 2015 value is $117.46/share; the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share; the Year 2017 value is $132.00/share; the Year 2018 value is $161.93/share; the Year 2019 value is $162.93/share; and the Year 2020 value is $139.72/share:

Year 2021 estimate:

$206.38/share

Year 2022 estimate:

$223.34/share

Year 2023 estimate:

$244.94/share

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability

S&P500 EPS Forecasts From Standard & Poor’s December 16, 2021

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of December 16, 2021:

Year 2021 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $202.06/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $190.86/share

Year 2022 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $220.98/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $209.49/share

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability

Businesses’ Inflation Expectations And Expected Effects Of COVID-19

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes a monthly report titled “Business Inflation Expectations” (BIE) that contains statistics from a survey of regional businesses’ views on various factors that impact profitability.  These factors include unit costs, unit cost expectations, sales levels, pricing, profit margins, and other factors.

As described on the site:

“Approximately 300 panelists receive the survey each month. Panelists represent businesses of various sizes headquartered within the Sixth District, which encompasses Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and sections of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Panelists range from executives of large corporations to owner-operators of small businesses. The industry composition of the panel roughly reflects the makeup of the national economy. Nevertheless, survey responses are weighted by industry shares of national gross domestic product.”

An excerpt from the December 2021 BIE Survey dated December 15, 2021 (involving 193 firms responding):

  • Inflation expectations: Firms’ year-ahead inflation expectations increased slightly to 3.4 percent, on average.
  • Current economic environment: Sales levels “compared to normal” decreased over the month, and profit margins remained unchanged. Year-over-year unit cost growth was also unchanged at 3.6 percent, on average.
  • Quarterly question: Firms’ long-term (per year, over the next five to 10 years) inflation expectations increased significantly to 3.2 percent, on average.
  • Special question: Firms were asked to provide their level of concern about COVID-19’s continued persistence as it pertains to different aspects of their business. They were then asked where they expect the state of the COVID-19 pandemic to be one year from now. Finally, firms provided their biggest areas of concern heading into 2022. A breakdown of the results can be found in the special question section below.

The report also includes other questions and a variety of charts and tables depicting respondents’ answers.

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.