S&P500 Earnings Trends – August 2019

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of August 9, 2019:

from page 9:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

trends of S&P500 EPS forecasts

from page 10:

S&P500 EPS 2009-2020

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

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ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

2019, 2020, and 2021 “Bottom Up” S&P500 EPS Forecasts

As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  

The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of August 19, 2019, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share; the Year 2015 value is $117.46; the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share; the Year 2017 value is $132.00/share; and the Year 2018 value is $161.93:

Year 2019 estimate:

$164.66/share

Year 2020 estimate:

$183.62/share

Year 2021 estimate:

$200.51/share

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

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ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

S&P500 EPS Forecasts From Standard & Poor’s August 15, 2019

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of August 15, 2019:

Year 2019 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $162.20/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $146.63/share

Year 2020 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $181.83/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $166.51/share

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

Inflation Expectations Of Firms And Impact Of Tariffs

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes a monthly report titled “Business Inflation Expectations” (BIE) that contains statistics from a survey of regional businesses’ views on various factors that impact profitability.  These factors include unit costs, unit cost expectations, sales levels, profit margins, and other factors.

As described on the site:

Approximately 300 panelists receive the survey each month. Panelists represent businesses of various sizes headquartered within the Sixth District, which encompasses Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and sections of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Panelists range from executives of large corporations to owner-operators of small businesses. The industry composition of the panel roughly reflects the makeup of the national economy. Nevertheless, survey responses are weighted by industry shares of national gross domestic product.

Two excerpts from the August 2019 BIE Survey dated August 14, 2019 (involving 243 firms responding):

  • Inflation expectations: Firms’ year-ahead inflation expectations were virtually unchanged at 2.0 percent, on average.

also:

  • Quarterly question: The majority of firms expect sales levels, productivity, and margin adjustments to have little or no impact on their prices over the next 12 months. Labor and nonlabor costs are expected to have moderate upward influence on prices over the next 12 months.
  • Special question: Firms provided the percentage of tariff-related cost increases they are passing on to their customers through price increases as well as their expectations regarding further tariff-related price increases over the next three months. See the special question section for a breakdown of the results.

The report also includes other questions and a variety of charts and tables depicting respondents’ answers.

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

S&P500 Earnings Trends – July 2019

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of July 12, 2019:

from page 23:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 earnings forecasts trends

from page 24:

S&P500 annual earnings since 2009

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.