S&P500 Earnings Trends – September 2019

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” (pdf) report of September 13, 2019:

from page 12:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 earnings forecast trends

from page 13:

S&P500 EPS trends since 2009

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

S&P500 2019, 2020, and 2021 “Bottom Up” EPS Forecasts

As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  

The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of September 16, 2019, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share; the Year 2015 value is $117.46; the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share; the Year 2017 value is $132.00/share; and the Year 2018 value is $161.93:

Year 2019 estimate:

$164.38/share

Year 2020 estimate:

$182.85/share

Year 2021 estimate:

$200.23/share

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

S&P500 EPS Forecasts From Standard & Poor’s September 12, 2019

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of September 12, 2019:

Year 2019 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $161.56/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $145.90/share

Year 2020 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $181.11/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $166.38/share

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

Long-Term Inflation Expectations And Expected Sales Growth

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes a monthly report titled “Business Inflation Expectations” (BIE) that contains statistics from a survey of regional businesses’ views on various factors that impact profitability.  These factors include unit costs, unit cost expectations, sales levels, profit margins, and other factors.

As described on the site:

Approximately 300 panelists receive the survey each month. Panelists represent businesses of various sizes headquartered within the Sixth District, which encompasses Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and sections of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Panelists range from executives of large corporations to owner-operators of small businesses. The industry composition of the panel roughly reflects the makeup of the national economy. Nevertheless, survey responses are weighted by industry shares of national gross domestic product.

Two excerpts from the September 2019 BIE Survey dated September 11, 2019 (involving 235 firms responding):

  • Inflation expectations: Firms’ year-ahead inflation expectations went unchanged at 2.0 percent, on average.
  • Current economic environment: Sales levels and profit margins compared to “normal times” remained roughly the same. Year-over-year unit cost growth was unchanged at 1.9 percent, on average.
  • Quarterly question: Firms’ long-term (per year, over the next five to 10 years) inflation expectations were 2.7 percent, on average.

The “Special Question” concerned sales growth expectations and how such expectations have changed over the last three months.

The report also includes other questions and a variety of charts and tables depicting respondents’ answers.

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

Overall Q2 2019 Corporate Profits Relative To GDP

In the last post (“After-Tax Corporate Profits Chart 2nd Quarter 2019“) I displayed, for reference purposes, a long-term chart depicting Corporate Profits After Tax.

There are many ways to view this measure, both on an absolute as well as relative basis.

One relative measure is viewing Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP.  I feel that this metric is important for a variety of reasons.  As well, the measure is important to a variety of parties, including investors, businesses, and government policy makers.

As one can see from the long-term chart below (updated through the second quarter), (After Tax) Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP is at levels that can be seen as historically (very) high.  While there are many reasons as to why this is so, from a going-forward standpoint I think it is important to recognize both that such a notable condition exists, as well as contemplate and/or plan for such factors and conditions that would come about if (and in my opinion “when”) a more historically “normal” ratio of Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP occurs.  This topic can be very complex in nature, and depends upon myriad factors.  In my opinion it deserves far greater recognition.

(click on chart to enlarge image)

Corporate Profits As A Percentage Of GDP

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed August 29, 2019

_____

RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

—–

ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC (RevSD.com).  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.