Profitability Issues

Businesses’ Inflation Expectations And Cost Of Training New Hires

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes a monthly report titled “Business Inflation Expectations” (BIE) that contains statistics from a survey of regional businesses’ views on various factors that impact profitability. These factors include unit costs, unit cost expectations, sales levels, pricing, profit margins, and other factors.

As described on the site:

“Approximately 300 panelists receive the survey each month. Panelists represent businesses of various sizes headquartered within the Sixth District, which encompasses Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and sections of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Panelists range from executives of large corporations to owner-operators of small businesses. The industry composition of the panel roughly reflects the makeup of the national economy. Nevertheless, survey responses are weighted by industry shares of national gross domestic product.”

An excerpt from the June 2026 BIE Survey dated June 17, 2026 (involving 395 firms responding):

Current economic environment: Sales levels and profit margins “compared to normal” decreased. Year-over-year unit cost growth remained constant at 2.4 percent, on average
Quarterly questions: Firms’ long-run (five to 10 years ahead) unit-cost expectations remained constant from March 2026 at 2.8 percent.
Special questions: In June’s special questions, we asked firms to consider the cost of onboarding and training new hires.

The report also includes other questions and a variety of charts and tables depicting respondents’ answers.

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

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ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC. RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

S&P500 Earnings Trends – June 2026

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of June 12, 2026:

from page 30:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

from page 31:

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

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S&P500 EPS Estimates For 2026 – 2028 As Of June 12, 2026

As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.

The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of June 12, 2026, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts. For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share; the Year 2015 value is $117.46/share; the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share; the Year 2017 value is $132.00/share; the Year 2018 value is $161.93/share; the Year 2019 value is $162.93/share; the Year 2020 value is $139.72/share; the year 2021 value is $208.12/share; the year 2022 value is $218.09/share; the year 2023 value is $221.36/share; the year 2024 value is $242.73/share; and the year 2025 value is $271.29/share:

Year 2026 estimate:

$340.39/share

Year 2027 estimate:

$397.87/share

Year 2028 estimate:

$446.60/share

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

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Overall Q1 2026 Corporate Profits Relative To GDP

In the last post (“After-Tax Corporate Profits Chart 1st Quarter 2026”) I displayed, for reference purposes, a long-term chart depicting Corporate Profits After Tax.

There are many ways to view this measure, both on an absolute as well as relative basis.

One relative measure is viewing Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP. I feel that this metric is important for a variety of reasons. As well, the measure is important to a variety of parties, including investors, businesses, and government policy makers.

As one can see from the long-term chart below (updated through the first quarter), (After Tax) Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP is still at levels that can be seen as historically high. While there are many reasons as to why this is so, from a going-forward standpoint I think it is important to recognize both that such a notable condition exists, as well as contemplate and/or plan for such factors and conditions that would come about if (and in my opinion “when”) a more historically “normal” ratio of Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP occurs. This topic can be very complex in nature, and depends upon myriad factors. In my opinion it deserves far greater recognition.

(click on chart to enlarge image)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Corporate Profits After Tax [CP]; U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis; accessed May 28, 2026; https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CP

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RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

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ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC (RevSD.com). RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

After-Tax Corporate Profits Chart 1st Quarter 2026

Today’s (May 28, 2026) GDP release (Q1 2026, Second Estimate) was accompanied by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Corporate Profits report (Preliminary Estimate) for the 1st Quarter.

Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits. For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) showing the Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj) (last updated May 28, 2026 with a value of $3,917.196 Billion SAAR):

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Here is the Corporate Profits After Tax measure shown on a Percentage Change from a Year Ago perspective (value of 17.4%):

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RevSD, LLC offers the above data and projections for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with information provided by these outside parties.

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