“Bottom Up” S&P500 EPS Projections For Years 2020-2022

As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  

The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of May 18, 2020, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share; the Year 2015 value is $117.46/share; the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share; the Year 2017 value is $132.00/share; the Year 2018 value is $161.93/share; and the Year 2019 value is $162.93/share:

Year 2020 estimate:

$126.13/share

Year 2021 estimate:

$164.41/share

Year 2022 estimate:

$186.60/share

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

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ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

S&P500 EPS Forecasts From Standard & Poor’s May 14, 2020

As many are aware, Standard & Poor’s publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.  

For reference purposes, the most current estimates are reflected below, and are as of May 14, 2020:

Year 2020 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $111.65/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $95.59/share

Year 2021 estimates add to the following:

-From a “bottom up” perspective, operating earnings of $163.14/share

-From a “top down” perspective, operating earnings of N/A

-From a “bottom up” perspective, “as reported” earnings of $147.42/share

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

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ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

Firms’ Responses On Inflation Expectations And COVID-19 Impact

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta publishes a monthly report titled “Business Inflation Expectations” (BIE) that contains statistics from a survey of regional businesses’ views on various factors that impact profitability.  These factors include unit costs, unit cost expectations, sales levels, profit margins, and other factors.

As described on the site:

Approximately 300 panelists receive the survey each month. Panelists represent businesses of various sizes headquartered within the Sixth District, which encompasses Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and sections of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Panelists range from executives of large corporations to owner-operators of small businesses. The industry composition of the panel roughly reflects the makeup of the national economy. Nevertheless, survey responses are weighted by industry shares of national gross domestic product.

An excerpt from the May 2020 BIE Survey dated May 13, 2020 (involving 223 firms responding):

  • Inflation expectations: Firms’ year-ahead inflation expectations went virtually unchanged at 1.5 percent, on average.
  • Current economic environment: Sales levels and profit margins “compared to normal” remain at historically low levels. Year-over-year unit cost growth remains at 1.2 percent, on average.
  • Quarterly question: The majority of firms expect labor costs and non-labor costs to put moderate upward influence on prices over the next twelve months.
  • Special question: Firms indicated the degree of disruption they’ve experienced with regard to their sales activity, suppliers/supply chains, and ability to maintain adequate staffing levels as a result of the outbreak of COVID-19. They also provided their expectations of when these elements of their business might be free of disruption. A breakdown of the results can be found in the special question section below.

The report also includes other questions and a variety of charts and tables depicting respondents’ answers.

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

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ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

S&P500 Earnings Trends – April 2020

S&P500 earnings trends and estimates are a notably important topic, for a variety of reasons, at this point in time.

FactSet publishes a report titled “Earnings Insight” that contains a variety of information including the trends and expectations of S&P500 earnings.

For reference purposes, here are two charts as seen in the “Earnings Insight” report of April 17, 2020:

from page 23:

(click on charts to enlarge images)

S&P500 earnings estimates trends

from page 24:

S&P500 EPS Actuals and Estimates

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.

“Bottom Up” S&P500 EPS Projections Years 2020, 2021 & 2022

As many are aware, Refinitiv publishes earnings estimates for the S&P500.

The following estimates are from Exhibit 24 of the “S&P500 Earnings Scorecard” (pdf) of April 21, 2020, and represent an aggregation of individual S&P500 component “bottom up” analyst forecasts.  For reference, the Year 2014 value is $118.78/share; the Year 2015 value is $117.46/share; the Year 2016 value is $118.10/share; the Year 2017 value is $132.00/share; the Year 2018 value is $161.93/share; and the Year 2019 value is $162.93/share:

Year 2020 estimate:

$140.05/share

Year 2021 estimate:

$173.37/share

Year 2022 estimate:

$193.95/share

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RevSD, LLC offers the above commentary for informational purposes only, and does not necessarily agree with all (or any) of the views expressed by these outside parties.

—–

ProfitabilityIssues.com is published by RevSD, LLC.  RevSD, LLC is a management consulting firm and strategic advisory that focuses on the analysis of current and future business conditions, and given these conditions, offers corporations and businesses advice, strategies, and actionable methods on how to optimally increase revenues and profitability.